Please do keep in mind, the top two leading markets for film is America and China. China has officially banned 'Deadpool' from showing in their country due to graphic content, so this could possibly affect the overall box office. However, for many of these films I will discuss, I couldn't find any numbers from China. I dont think it will affect this article, as I will mainly be focusing the U.S. box office and the overall worldwide box office numbers. All my information is taken from BoxOfficeMojo.com
The 'Kick-Ass' films are also two R-rated, foul mouthed, hyper violent comic book films. The first Kick-Ass' was a relatively smaller movie, but still opened at Number 1 at the American box office with $19.8 million. This isn't a big number and would probably be a disappointment for a film bigger than what 'Kick-Ass' was. The total take of 'Kick-Ass' worldwide was respectable $96.1 million, but for a big comic property like 'Deadpool', that simply wouldn't cut it. 'Kick-Ass 2', which could've been huge due to the critical praise of the first film, is ultimately considered a box office flop, making a wimpy $13.3 million opening weekend and a worldwide total of $60.7 million. 'Kick-Ass', like 'Deadpool', is a property that appeals to the younger crowd. These numbers would seriously mean bad news if 'Deadpool' follows these footsteps. The 'Kick-Ass' films did, however, also open against stiff super-hero competition, both realesing on the front and tail ends of the summer movie season, respectively.
As I have hinted at, the date can be a big factor in box office numbers. 'Deadpool' releases on Valentine's Day/Presidents day weekend in the U.S. I want to look at the box office of this same exact weekend in 2015. Fair warning, I'm about to mention 'Fifty Shades of Grey'. Not only did 'Fifty Shades of Grey' come out valentine's weekend, but so did 'Kingsman: The Secret Service'. Now, 'Fifty Shades' made a killing ($85m opening weekend, $570m worldwide), mostly due to Valentine's Day and it being a movie about sex, but that's not what I want to focus on. 'Kingsman: The Secret Service' made an okay $36.2 million opening weekend, but overall, made a whopping $414.3 million worldwide. This could mean good news for 'Deadpool' as both films are R-rated action comedy comic book films. Both are also Fox films, explaining the release date of 'Deadpool'. There's a catch, however, as 'Kingsman: The Secret Service' made a huge $74 million in China alone, and as 'Deadpool' is banned in China, this could mean a huge chunk of cash NOT being in the worldwide total.
My final prediction, based off my research, is an opening weekend of $70-80 million dollars and a total worldwide take of $200-250 million dollars. I do genuinely feel that the success of similar movies around the same time and the popularity of the character, that 'Deadpool' will kill at the box office. I also feel it'll miss out on some cash from China, but I sense that a hit coming, and maybe even a sequel.